S01: A Comparative Study of Government Responses to COVID-19: Mainland China and 8+2 Representative Countries
Poster Presenter
Dongmin Ling
Masters Student
University of Macau Macao
Objectives
We choose 12 countries to represent their own continents, including Mainland China, United State(US), India, Brazil, United Kingdom(UK), Russia, France, Spain, Italy, South Africa, and Australia to reveal what's the policy and the relationship between policymaking and Covid-19 increased cases.
Method
We use the least-squares method, piecewise and exponential regression strategies to analyze the collected data from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021, divided into 55 weeks over time. We estimate their weekly increased infectious case rate during an outbreak and take all increased cases into consideration.
Results
In chosen representative countries, Mainland China, United States (US), India, Brazil, United Kingdom(UK), Russia, France, Spain, Italy, South Africa, and Australia which represented their own continents with the largest confirmed infectious cases. All the chosen countries demonstrated an exponential growth trend in WINC in 2020, fixed the curve well with a 4-6 exponential order, whose coefficient R square larger than 0.99. Their average weekly increased iWINC rates ware 18.79%, 19.26%, 26.65%, 17.1%, 19.16%, 46.90%, 20.58%, 11.98%, 2.79%, 13.34%, 40.08% respectively. From the whole graphic analysis, China and Australia WINC rate high among those areas due to their small total infectious number, like the US, UK, and the others possess high with similar or lower rates, the small base can change largely. Russia owns high WINC rate is inclined to steadily increase infectious cases by weeks. All these rates also proved COVID-19 infectious cases are exponentially increasing over time. Similar to one peak in Mainland China with drastically increased and decreased trend during an outbreak, India still in large infectious population with average of 220,000/week.US was blamed for its late government responses, took up nearly 1/5 confirmed cases and deaths without rapid government responses. Other European countries including UK, Russia, France, Spain, and Italy, served as the most severe countries in Europe, owned a similar outbreak trend with two obvious peaks during 10-20 and >40 weeks, their WINC cases still at a high rate. South Africa demonstrated similar peaks to listed European countries when two peaks in Australia appeared earlier, now is in steadily lower than most of the countries. Australian Second outbreak was mostly ascribed to gathering reopen from April after they have strangled the first outbreak into pandemic, government department of health shows the world a successful example with rapid response, lockdown, compulsive border control, quarantine.
Conclusion
Total infectious data, daily and weekly confirmed increased rate both need to take into consideration in reflecting the relationship between health policy and case-control. Lower down the WINC rate is essential for the world. From this study, we can conclude that government's rapid response help to reduce the infectious range. For government and experts, focus on policies making and implementing timely testing and lockdown, immigration control, for people, executing quarantine, continent social distancing with personal protective devices policies have taken into effect during the drastically infectious period in most of countries worldwide, its quick response started from Feb 11 in 2020 first in Wuhan city, China and then expand to other severe infectious countries, like Australia, which also took a better control when they expressed. US, European areas and South Africa, more public health policies and government regulation need to combine to defeat this SARS-Cov-2. Many more fiscal countries endeavored to work on vaccine research and production. Three vaccines have been approved to inoculate in succession by China and US separately, transporting globally, further effectiveness in containing, decreasing, and even eliminating new coronavirus still need time to confirm. Hence, quick policies response is critical in handling this public emergency, warning early, responding early, more emergency policies making should be learned from this lesson.
